Economic Forecasters...Who to Trust?

In yesterday's post, I talked about the about-face by a former economist of the NAR. It seems that most of these so-called forecasters are employed by investment banks, trade associations, or large corporations. They used computer models that did not take into account emotional factors such as the shock from the credit crisis or the free fall of housing prices. They also did not foresee banks and other lenders holding back on loans and freezing the credit needed to revive the economy.
Most of these economists are more optimistic than Nouriel Roubini of NYU, who foresaw the 2008 recession. He expects a "deep and protracted contraction lasting at least through the end of 2009," and a very weak recovery in 2010.
I hope that the majority of the forecasters are right...the ones who estimate that the housing market will bottom out by spring, fueled by a federal government that will buy mortgage-backed securities, and lower rates to less than 5% on 30 year loans. We'll just have to wait and see.