A Positive Take on the Local Real Estate Market

Rick Turley, our regional president of Coldwell Banker, recently wrote this promising prediction.
"2009 was a challenging year in real estate. The good news is that we started to see a positive turn in the housing market as the year wore on, thanks in part to the first-time home buyer stimulus and indications that the economy was starting to improve. So what will 2010 bring?
With the increases we are seeing in the S&P 500 (up 20.5% YTD) and the economic improvements we are seeing on a global scale, things seem to be moving in the right direction. This makes prospective home buyers feel more confident about their future and the home they may choose to buy. So much of our business is affected by consumer confidence.
But I would caution that we probably aren’t out of the woods as it relates to foreclosures. With unemployment figures still frighteningly high, there are still quite a few homeowners out there who are struggling with their payments. And now there is a great deal of evidence that it isn’t just in the entry level arena; it is also hitting the mid-level and luxury market, too.
The big question remains: When will the “shadow” inventory of already foreclosed homes begin to be released, now that the government has lifted the moratoriums on foreclosures. Once we start to move through those properties, we should begin to see a better, more solid grounding for the real estate market.
The fact is, we live in one of the most desirable regions in the world. Certainly we’ve taken our fair share of hits over the last three years, but our region’s desirability, economic vitality, culture, weather and overall market conditions make it a sought-after place to live. We generally have a much healthier economy in the Bay Area. In terms of a US housing recovery, predicted to be slow, long, and modest; ours will probably be more favorable than most. As we track Bay Area sales activity, we are seeing more encouraging signs.
Based on what we’re seeing, we’re estimating that we can expect sales to moderate to a more sustainable pace. We are already seeing a rise in housing prices in the entry level, and may see a modest rise in our mid-level price points, and most likely we’ll see further adjustments downward in the high end. But this new normal is much more sustainable and will provide a solid foundation to build upon. It makes me excited about the future and gives us all hope for a productive and healthy 2010."