Friday, July 10, 2009

Interest Rates in the Last Month


I had an unhappy experience last week when buyers who were prequalified to buy a home just a month ago were denied a loan because of a rise in interest rates.
In the last month, we've seen rates go up a full percent and then come down a half percent.
The Feds aren't raising rates. What has happened is that Wall Street is concerned about the trillions of dollars being injected into the US economy via the Economic Stimulus Plan, believing that it will lead to inflation, even though they expected it to improve the economy.
About a month ago, many on Wall Street saw hints that we were going to recover from the recession later this year. As a result, the stock market rallied, and the bond market sold off at a record pace. Since mortgage bonds are the prime mover on mortgage rates, these rates shot up one percent in just three weeks.
Of course, Wall Street changes its view of the economic future at the drop of a hat, and in the last week or so, their theorists have decided that the recession is worse than they previously thought, and recovery won't take place this year. As a result, stocks sold off, bonds rallied, and this pushed mortgage interest rates a half percent lower. Meanwhile, home buyers suffer from this fluctuation, even though rates are still near a 38 year low.

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