Real Estate and the Stock Market

Rick Turley, our San Francisco Bay Area President of Coldwell Banker, had some great insights to share about the effect of the stock market's jump on higher end real estate.
Here are some highlights.
Some high-end Sellers may be saying no to potential contracts on their home as they think by waiting another four to six months (thanks to the stock market’s recent gains) they may get more for their homes. Of course every home is unique and each market is very local, but by and large, the higher end of housing probably won’t follow this reasoning. First, what we know is that in a “normal” market (of which this market is anything but), the average lag time between the two is 18 months (not four to six months). It’s also important to point out that we probably aren’t out of the woods as it relates to the volatility in the stock market and overall health of our economy. Many analysts are suggesting that our recovery may be “W” shaped rather than “V” so we could be looking at more challenges ahead.
Focusing less on the stock market and more on the level of supply and demand in the particular market and neighborhood will most likely be more helpful. In most markets, the upper-tier price point remains relatively soft; in some cases offers can be few and far between, and may be worth a second look. A few examples: In San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, there’s currently less than a month and a half’s supply of inventory for homes under $750,000. For homes over $3M, there is a 13 month supply. In San Francisco, for homes under $1M – there is a 2 months supply of inventory. For homes over $3M, a 14 month supply. That’s not to say buyers should be throwing out unrealistic offers and expecting them to be accepted. The real story here is that across the board we’re seeing very favorable increases in interest and in buyer activity. Sellers may want to consider taking advantage of that interest…before the typical seasonal slowdown.
For those who focus on the stock market daily, it is probably a better indicator for the economy as a whole rather than a predictor of where real estate is headed. With the DOW closing Thursday at just over 9,300, it doesn’t suggest home values will rise in a direct correlation, but it may mean that the recession is subsiding which would be good news for us all.